Shepherd's Bush Property Market 'Changed Forever'

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Prices north of Uxbridge Road outperforming

A house on Hartswood Road sold for over £2,000,000. Picture: Google Streetview

Transaction levels in the property have remained low in the Shepherd’s Bush area since the second half of last year leading some agents to believe there has been a fundamental change in the market.

After a surge of activity in the first half of 2021 due to the temporary reduction in Stamp Duty, volumes have fallen sharply. The Land Registry are only recording 96 sales in the W12 post code area since the end of June 2021.

One local estate agent said, “I think we now have to accept that the local property market has changed forever and we are never going back to the way things were before.

“The big adjustment that the sales market in Shepherd’s Bush and other parts of west London is coming to terms with is that the expectation of capital gain, that purchasers used to have, is gone. That means most people move now only when they really need to and many have sought to expand their existing home rather than buying a new property and selling their existing one. That has meant that the cost of major building work has gone up significantly locally due to both labour costs and materials increasing in price.

“The resulting lack of stock does mean that properties that come to the market do tend to sell quickly. Over the last year I think we have seen a squeezing of the differential between properties north of the Uxbridge Road and south with the latter usually attracting a premium. Developments around White City in particular have made the existing housing stock more appealing simply by drawing attention to its existence.”

The lack of volume makes it difficult to be sure about price trends but there is no firm indication that values are falling. There remains good demand for the few family houses that are brought to the market particularly in the west of the area. Despite the general lack of activity, two homes sold for over £2,000,000 in the second half of last year in Ashchurch Grove and Hartswood Road.

Most agents say that there is also a severe shortage of property for rent in W12 as lettings has seen a similar pattern of behaviour to sales with tenants tending to stay put at the end of their lease.

One agent who handles lettings said, “Although rents are trending upwards there is already an affordability issue and most of the ‘rent rises’ I have seen are essentially landlords adjusting for higher energy costs. After some bad experiences over lockdown, landlords are placing much more of a premium of reliable tenants and are reluctant to raise rents by too much.”

Shepherd's Bush Property Prices - (January - March 2022)
Area	Semi- Det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flats/ Mais	Sales	Overall Ave	Total Sales
W12 0	0	0	742500	2	640000	1	708333	3
W12 7	0	0	1300000	1	515000	2	776667	3
W12 9	0	0	1750000	2	636667	3	1082000	5
Total	0	0	1257000	5	596667	6	896818	11
Change over quarter	-	-	11.4%	-28.6%	18.2%	-14.3%	9.8%	-21.4%
Change over year	-	-	1.1%	-66.7%	12.0%	-76.9%	-0.9%	-75.6%
Change over three years	-	-	-35.3%	-16.7%	25.2%	-50.0%	-32.1%	-52.2%
Change over five years	-	-	17.2%	-16.7%	0.9%	-73.9%	18.9%	-64.5%
Change over ten years	-	-	49.6%	-50.0%	83.1%	-60.0%	68.7%	-56.0%

 

Shepherd's Bush Property Prices - (October - December 2021)
Area	Semi- Det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flats/ Mais	Sales	Overall Ave	Total Sales
W12 0	600000	1	707000	3	411500	2	590667	6
W12 7	0	0	0	0	421447	7	421447	7
W12 8	0	0	1362500	2	512333	3	852400	5
W12 9	0	0	1128214	7	504786	7	816500	14
Total	600000	1	1061958	12	465454	19	693348	32
Change over quarter	-	-	-4.1%	-52.0%	-5.4%	-17.4%	-25.9%	-39.6%
Change over year	-	-	-5.9%	-57.1%	-8.6%	-60.4%	-8.5%	-58.4%
Change over three years	-	-	5.7%	-40.0%	-44.8%	-80.0%	-20.1%	-72.6%
Change over five years	-	-	-16.8%	-47.8%	-13.2%	-60.4%	-16.1%	-57.3%
Change over ten years	-	-	75.8%	-66.7%	47.3%	-71.6%	66.4%	-68.9%

 

Shepherd's Bush Property Prices - (July - September 2021)
Area	Detached	Sales	Semi- det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flat/ mais	Sales	Overall ave	Total sales
W12 0	0	0	605000	1	783750	10	527333	3	716036	14
W12 7	0	0	0	0	1138000	5	484687	8	735962	13
W12 8	0	0	0	0	1465000	3	416250	2	1045500	5
W12 9	3087500	2	1897500	2	1393286	7	502125	10	1178298	21
Total	3087500	2	1466667	3	1107020	25	491880	23	935165	53
Change over quarter	-	-	-	-	9.4%	-52.8%	-7.9%	-72.0%	22.0%	-63.2%
Change over year	-	-	-	-	10.9%	4.2%	-1.6%	-32.4%	30.0%	-10.2%
Change over three years	-	-	-	-	5.4%	-10.7%	-42.4%	-80.5%	4.4%	-64.7%
Change over five years	-	-	-	-	14.5%	-10.7%	-5.9%	-62.9%	37.5%	-43.0%
Change over ten years	-	-	-	-	86.7%	-41.9%	52.9%	-68.5%	103.2%	-58.3%

 

Source: Land Registry

The Nationwide House Price Index rose by 12.6% in February compared with the same month in 2021, the seventh consecutive monthly increase. This brought the price of the average home above £260,000. However much of this rise is driven by price increase outside London.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist said, “The economic outlook is particularly uncertain at present. Nevertheless, it is likely that the housing market will slow in the quarters ahead.

“The squeeze on household incomes is set to intensify, with inflation expected to rise above 7% in the coming months.

“Indeed, there is scope for inflation to rise even further as events in Ukraine threaten to send global energy prices even higher.

“Assuming that labour market conditions remain strong, the Bank of England is also likely to raise interest rates, which will exert a further drag on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates.

“Housing affordability has already become more stretched, in part because house price growth has been outstripping earnings growth by a wide margin since the pandemic struck.

“The price of a typical home is now equivalent to 6.7 times average earnings, up from 5.8 in 2019.”

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March 28, 2022